April 29, 2022 - 04:01 PM 269 views
At a meeting scheduled today, Russia’s central bank is widely
anticipated to cut the policy interest rates. But Commerzbank economists don’t
expect the policy interest rate decision to have a huge impact on the Russian
The tangential interest rate meeting
of the CBR is
The consensus is for a 200-bp cut, but the economists won’t be
surprised with a 300-bp cut either.
Currently, the inflation rate is running at 16–17% in the YoY
region, and there is no room to cut the inflation rate further.
of the steady exchange rate, the CBR has the luxury of anticipating lower
inflation in the months ahead and becoming more supportive of the real economy
now by decreasing rates.
But, once the real economy starts to outweigh the previous
interest rates, then a bigger rate cut will be easily justified. The extent of
the decrease today has little impact on the (fake) rouble exchange rate that we
see on our screens.