ECB Preview: A 25 Basis Point Rate Increase and the Introduction of an Anti-Fragmentation Tool

Societe Generale analysts provide a preview of what to anticipate from the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate announcement scheduled for 12:15 GMT on Thursday.

July 19, 2022 - 12:09 PM 263 views

ECB Preview: A 25 Basis Point Rate Increase and the Introduction of an Anti-Fragmentation Tool

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Societe Generale analysts provide a preview of what to anticipate from the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate announcement scheduled for 12:15 GMT on Thursday.

Important Quotes

 To be announced: the first rate increase in 11 years (25 bps).

The launch of an anti-fragmentation mechanism is planned to help fragile nations.

Although there are now greater downside risks to growth, the guidance for a potential 50 bps increase in September is likely to remain in place, in part because the inflation prediction will need to be updated again in September, at least in terms of the near term.

"No new staff forecasts will be offered, but an updated assessment is anticipated to indicate significant uncertainty, particularly with regard to the situation with the energy supply. There are still upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.

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